The 20th Party Congress and subsequent events demonstrate: 1) Xi’s further consolidated power 2) Beijing’s continually assertive posture in the Taiwan Strait 3) uncertainties about China’s economic outlook 4) Xi’s greater valuation of collective objectives than that of individuals’ well-being and a greater likelihood for Xi to accommodate domestic and international demands if he perceives his power is becoming more secure 5) the possibility that Xi’s perception of his increasingly consolidated power made him more amenable to adaptation in domestic and foreign policies and 6) the increasing potential of future civic defiance to the pathologies of governance in China. Stemming from the reshuffles are crucial factors related to each of the three political systems that would affect trilateral relations in the near future.

The “nine-in-one” local elections in Taiwan on November 26 turned out to be a major setback for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which won in only five of the 21 localities where magistrates or mayors were elected and lost in three localities of high political significance for a net loss of two localities. After the November 8 midterm elections in the United States, Republicans seized control of the House of Representatives while the Democrats’ overall performance was evidently better than expected. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was held during October 16-22, producing a Politburo and Standing Committee comprised entirely of Xi Jinping’s protégés and scrapping the previous pattern of compromise and equilibrium among political factions.

Important transitions marking power reshuffles occurred in the United States, Taiwan, and China in 2022.

Crossout 2022 download